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Swing States 2024
 Politics
Swing States 2024

Trump, McCormick grow leads with older voters in battleground Pennsylvania: ‘Extremely motivated to vote’

By
A.G. Gancarski
Published Oct. 1, 2024, 12:36 p.m. ET

New polling by the American Association of Retired Persons from the Keystone State suggests mature voters could be key to Republican wins in November, as they’re more likely overall to back GOP candidates than everyone else.

But with just five weeks to go before the polls close, the question for Donald Trump and Senate candidate Dave McCormick is whether they can cement an advantage with the over-50 set and win the state.

Kamala Harris leads Trump 50% to 47% overall, while incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is up 49% to 45% over McCormick.

US Vice President and Democratic nominee for President Kamala Harris delivering a speech at The Economic Club of Pittsburgh at Carnegie Mellon University
Vice President Kamala Harris visited Pittsburgh last month to sell her economic vision to Pennsylvania voters. Getty Images

But the good news for Republicans is that among some of the highest-propensity voters, they have growing leads.

Trump is up 52% to 44% with voters 50 and older, though with predictable ethnic splits. The former president leads Harris 57% to 39% with older white voters, but the vice president leads 88% to 7% with black voters.

Gender is more nuanced.

Though Harris has a 57% to 38% lead with women overall, demonstrating a gender gap seen in most polls, Trump ties her at 48% with female voters over the age of 50. The former prez is up by more than 15 points with both all males and older ones.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump speaking at a podium during a campaign event at the Bayfront Convention Center in Erie, Pennsylvania, on September 29, 2024.
Former President Donald Trump visited Erie, Pa., Sunday to kick off a busy week of rallies. AFP via Getty Images

Similar dynamics play out in the Senate race.

Casey’s 19-point lead with all women dwindles to just a 3-point edge over McCormick with those 50 and older. And while McCormick leads by 15 points with whites over 50, Casey leads him by 78 points with their black counterparts.

McCormick’s lead among all older voters has widened, from 1 point in April to 5 points now.

But there is some variance between the races, including ticket-splitting. Per AARP, at least 25% of older voters will split their tickets, and that’s good news for Trump, who is up 5 over Harris with them, and Casey, up 7 with the same group.

Impact Research’s Jeff Liszt, whose Democratic firm teamed up with the Republican Fabrizio Ward outfit on this survey, says older voters are more motivated than the younger set — which potentially leverages their performance.

“You’ve got a big gap still in Pennsylvania and motivation to turn out between voters under age 50 and voters over age 50,” he told reporters on a briefing call Tuesday. “Ninety-one percent of voters 50-plus are saying that they are extremely motivated to vote versus 71% of voters 18 to 49.”

The pollsters surveyed 1,398 likely voters between Sept. 17 and 24, including “a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters, an oversample of 470 likely voters ages 50 and older, and an additional oversample of 328 black likely voters ages 50 and older.”