Devin Williams may have given the Mets just the slightest bit of information they needed to exploit the former All-Star closer and extend their miracle run.
Williams potentially tipped his pitches during his fateful ninth inning that saw him surrender a two-run lead by allowing four runs in the Mets’ dramatic 4-2 Game 3 win, as theorized in a breakdown by Jomboy Media and corroborated by former Twins infielder and Jomboy Media analyst Trevor Plouffe.
The evidence presented by James “Jomboy” O’Brien shows Williams holding his glove slightly different when throwing his changeup and his fastball, which could have provided the small window the Mets needed since Williams relied exclusively on those two pitches Thursday night.
Williams’ changeup is one of the most devastating pitches in the sport, but even the best of pitches loses some of its effectiveness if a batter knows its coming.
The closer threw 17 changeups and 17 four-seamers (fastballs) Thursday, relying on his bread and butter to try to close out a 2-0 game entering the ninth inning.
When Williams threw his fastball, his glove appeared to be closer to his face and his right hand appeared to be deeper in his glove compared to both positions for his changeup.
The glove also appeared to be flatter for his changeup.
O’Brien noted the different grips needed for a change-up versus the four-seamer playing a role in why the glove positioning would be different for the pitches.
He posted a text exchange with Plouffe of his theory, which included the former MLBer responding: “Def see some flat glove stuff.”
Francisco Lindor, who led off the inning with a walk, saw five fastballs and three changeups in his plate appearance before Williams fanned Mark Vientos on four pitches, three being changeups.
Brandon Nimmo saw three changeups in his at-bat and singled on an 0-2 changeup down in the zone that perhaps caught more of the plate than Williams wanted.
Before Pete Alonso came to the plate, Mets hitting coach Jeremy Barnes talked to Alonso and seemingly could be saying “that’s the changeup.”
The full context is missing since it’s a short segment, but Alonso then seems to say “I gotcha” before motioning with his arm while walking to the plate.
Alonso then watched a middle-middle changeup for pitch one that could have been punished before Williams misfired with two fastballs and a changeup.
Sitting behind in a 3-1 count, Williams then returned to his changeup and Alonso pounced on a pitch that caught way too much of the plate for a three-run go-ahead homer that gave the Mets a 3-2 lead.
“It could have been better, but it wasn’t the worst pitch I’ve ever thrown,” Williams said, per ESPN. “I wanted to go away with it. I got it there. It was a good piece of hitting.”
A breakdown of Williams pitches further reveals the Mets, aside from Vientos, didn’t swing and miss much against Williams, with 15 of their 20 swings (75 percent) resulting in some type of contact.
If you subtract Vientos, who whiffed on two of this three swings, then they either registered a hit, out or a foul ball with 14 of 17 swings (82.4 percent).
Williams missed the plate more often with his fastball, throwing seven of 17 for balls and the Mets made contact on seven of the 10 pitches they swung at.
The righty only threw four balls among his 17 changeups, and his opponents made contact with eight of the 12 (67 percent) offerings they committed to.
Devin Williams’ ninth-inning pitch usage
| Outcome | Fastball (17) | Changeup (17) |
|---|---|---|
| Swinging strike | 2 | 3 |
| Hit | 1 | 2 |
| Ball | 7 | 4 |
| Called strike | 1 | 2 |
| Foul | 5 | 6 |
| Out | 1 | 0 |
While O’Brien makes a solid argument, there are counters to his theory.
Thursday marked the third time the Mets saw Williams dating to last Saturday, giving them ample time to familiarize themselves with his pitches.
Williams also did not locate his pitches all that well, even hitting Jesse Winker two batters after the homer.
The Alonso at-bat featured a fist-pitch middle-middle changeup before the 3-1 pitch landed in a spot where Alonso could muscle it out to right field.
