double-skinned crabs double-skinned crabs double-skinned crabs double-skinned crabs double-skinned crabs double-skinned crabs double-skinned crabs double-skinned crabs double-skinned crabs double-skinned crabs double-skinned crabs double-skinned crabs vietnamese seafood double-skinned crabs mud crab exporter double-skinned crabs double-skinned crabs crabs crab exporter soft shell crab crab meat crab roe mud crab sea crab vietnamese crabs seafood food vietnamese sea food double-skinned crab double-skinned crab soft-shell crabs meat crabs roe crabs
Politics

Trump and Harris deadlocked in final national Siena College poll — less than two weeks before election

By
Emily Crane
Published Oct. 25, 2024, 8:02 a.m. ET

It’s anyone’s race.

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are locked in a dead heat fewer than two weeks before the 2024 presidential election, according to a closely watched survey released Friday.

The New York Times/Siena College poll found that Trump, 78, and Harris, 60, each received 48% support among likely voters. 

In a six-way ballot test, Trump edged ahead of Harris 47% to 46% among likely voters, followed by Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein on 2%.

Donald Trump at a campaign event in Las Vegas on Oct. 24, 2024.
Donald Trump at a campaign event in Las Vegas on Oct. 24, 2024. REUTERS

The Libertarian Party’s candidate, Chase Oliver, received under 1% support, while independents Cornel West and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (who endorsed Trump after ending his own campaign in August) garnered under 0.5% support. 

The Times/Siena poll is the latest survey to show a boost in support for Trump as the race nears its finish. The most recent version of the survey, published Oct. 8, showed Harris with a three percentage point lead over her GOP rival both in the head-to-head contest (49%-46%) and in the multi-candidate test (47%-44%).

No Republican presidential candidate has won the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004, but the Times/Siena poll — as well as national surveys published in recent days by the Wall Street Journal, CNBC and Fox News — indicate Trump has an excellent chance of pulling off a victory in both the raw count and the all-important Electoral College.

In the latest poll, 31% said they had a “very favorable” view of Trump, while only 29% could say the same for Harris.

And only 39% said they voted for Trump in the last election, while 45% backed President Joe Biden, per the poll.

The survey also showed a wide gender gap, with Trump leading Harris among men in the head-to-head test 55%-41%, while Harris led among women by a slightly narrower 54%-42%.

College-educated voters preferred Harris by 21 percentage points (58%-37%), while Trump led by 13 among those without a degree (54%-41%).

But the biggest boost to the 45th president came from white voters without a college degree, who make up a plurality of the electorate and whom the poll showed preferring Trump over Harris by a margin of almost two-to-one (64%-34%).

The poll also showed Trump improving on his 2020 performance among black voters, 12% of whom said they would back the Republican compared to 81% who said they would support Harris.

That figure is well short of the Democratic ticket’s performance four years ago, when the Pew Research Center found 92% of black voters pulled the lever for Joe Biden.

Among self-described independents, Harris led Trump in the head-to-head test, 49%-44%.

“She does have a little bit more experience in the government at least,” said Luis Mata, an independent voter from San Antonio, Texas who told the Times he decided to support Harris after watching her only debate with Trump Sept. 10. 

“I know Donald Trump was our president for one term,” Mata added, “but, before that, I don’t think he really had too much experience aside from being a businessman.”

When it comes to key election issues, 52% of respondents said they trusted Trump to do a better job handling the economy compared to the 45% who favored Harris.

Trump also had a double-digit edge over Harrs on the issue of immigration, with 54% saying they trusted the 45th president to handle the issue better while 43% said the same of Harris. 

“I’m sorry, I do not agree with the illegals and the refugees coming in the country,” Wisconsin Trump supporter Sandra Remiker, 51 told the Times. “I mean, if we can’t help our own people, our own veterans that are living on the streets, we shouldn’t be helping other countries.”

Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally in Georgia on Oct. 24, 2024.
Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally in Georgia on Oct. 24, 2024. AP

Meanwhile, Harris maintains a lead on the issue of abortion with 55% of respondents favoring her over Trump’s 40%.

Most people are locked in to their choice of candidate, with 87% saying they were “definitely” going to stick with their pick.

The poll, which was conducted Oct. 20 to 23 among 2,516 registered voters nationwide, has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.