We’ve never been stranded in a desert. But we’ve seen “Breaking Bad” and “Better Call Saul,” and there are plenty of real-world photos of sandy hellscapes that we have a vague sense of how miserable it would be.
The Madman also understands that finding an oasis in such an environment would be a euphoric moment. In a sea of arid agony, you happen to find a splashy haven of relief? In the words of old Toyota commercials from our childhood: Oh, what a feeling!
Certainly, it would be almost as refreshing as a big game from Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley, right? Because, that happens about as rarely as finding a desert oasis. Only …
Not all oases are real. Some are a mirage. Is Ridley’s monster game Sunday — 10 receptions for 143 yards — a sign of things to come? A return to 2020 form? Or instead of a refreshing fantasy pool in the middle of desolate performances, is this a puddle of mud, providing no long-term fantasy relief?
To get a glimpse into the Ridley future, we are going to look into the past — since past performance is the most reliable indicator of future performance. And that past gets pretty muddy.
With the Falcons in 2020, we got peak Ridley — he finished as WR5 on the season and had just three dud games (weeks outside the top 30 WRs). How did he follow up that fine campaign?
Ridley was awful to start 2021 — WR48 after seven games before stepping away for “mental health reasons.” While on hiatus, he was then suspended for gambling as well. He didn’t return to the field until last season with the Jaguars.
After going a year-and-a-half without playing, the most comparable version of Ridley to use as a basis for future projections is his 2023 season.
He was just OK with the Jaguars that year, finished WR18 on the season. Yet, he had just six games when he finished in the top 12 of WRs for the week. He had 10 others that were duds (outside the top 30).
That degree of difference in performance is as extreme as the desert heat. In six “good” games, he averaged WR7. In the other 11, he averaged WR55. That could be useful info if there were an identifying variable that allowed us to forecast which version of Ridley we were going to get, and we haven’t yet found that variable, that “tell” that allows us to foresee a good or bad game before it happens.
Ridley’s boom-or-bust nature hasn’t changed this season. He has two games in the top 12, and the other five are all outside the top 45.
If that consistent inconsistency doesn’t make forecasting hard enough, identifying that key statistical “tell” is harder because last season he was with a different team, in an offense that scored 23 percent more than the one he is in now, and with a more established quarterback.
Some foresee an optimistic Ridley future, which implies more consistency. One of the theories in this vein is that he is going to work better as long as Mason Rudolph is QB, rather than Will Levis. But Rudolph doesn’t have a history of producing start-worthy fantasy WRs — best being a partial hand in Diontae Johnson finishing WR39 for the 2019 Steelers.
There is a thought the trade of DeAndre Hopkins will open up targets, but Hopkins wasn’t getting a wealth of targets — 24 total over seven games. Plus, being the team’s top WR options invites more defensive attention, so it isn’t all palm trees and waterfalls.
And none of that erases Ridley’s history. We trust that players can mimic production of the recent past. We have much less confidence they suddenly can do something dramatically different than they have in recent years.
Sure, Ridley had a great game Sunday. But we’re confident he will have more single-digit fantasy days the rest of the way than he will 20-plus games.
Week 8? That is just a mirage.
Up, up and away!
Raheem Mostert RB, Dolphins
He led the league in touchdowns last season. He gets double-digit touches almost every game. The offense is alive again with QB Tua Tagovailoa back. How is he on close to 25 percent of waiver wires?
John Metchie III WR, Texans
Stefon Diggs could be out a while with a knee injury. Nico Collins isn’t expected back until Week 10. Metchie could be a good one-week filler option. TE Dalton Schultz gets a bump, too.
Josh Downs WR, Colts
Came up an inch short of being a 28.2 PPR game instead of 22.2. If he is getting downfield looks over Alex Pierce, then Downs has value even in a low-volume, low-efficiency passing game.
Elijah Moore WR, Browns
Led the Browns in targets. Just behind Cedric Tillman on the Jameis Winston Fantasy Boost Scale.
Gonna be a bumpy ride
Baker Mayfield QB, Buccaneers
Had a fine game despite missing his top two WRs. Way to go, Baker. Alas, we don’t think it will last. Temper expectations until Mike Evans returns.
Kareem Hunt RB, Chiefs
Surprised he is dominating the backfield work. Not surprised the efficiency is weak. You could find some trade value based on his volume right now, before talk of Isiah Pacheco’s return ramps up.
Jordan Mason RB, 49ers
This isn’t so much about a shoulder injury that reportedly isn’t serious. But the 49ers have a bye in Week 9, then Christian McCaffrey could return in Week 10. If you have CMC, keep Mason as a handcuff. If not, try to trade him to the manager who does have CMC.
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Jayden Reed WR, Packers
If Jordan Love misses time with his groin problem and Malik Willis takes over again, just glance back at Weeks 2-3 to recall how the Packers WR corps’ fantasy production suffered.
