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Swing States 2024
 Politics
Swing States 2024

North Carolina polls show Hurricane Helene could decide Trump-Harris tilt

By
A.G. Gancarski
Published Oct. 29, 2024, 3:19 p.m. ET

Fresh polling from the Tar Heel State suggests the presidential race couldn’t be closer, and perceptions of governmental response to Hurricane Helene ultimately could push the state’s 16 electoral votes to either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.

Tuesday tallies from WRAL/SurveyUSA and Elon University show the candidates tied at 47% and 46% respectively. 

And in both cases, the tropical tempest’s unprecedented destruction and polarized perceptions of official response and recovery are framing the race even as 3.1 million voters (40% of the electorate) have already cast their ballots.

Life-size cutout of former US president Donald Trump, giving thumbs up, at the Buncombe County Republican Party office in Asheville, North Carolina, 2024.
A life-size cutout of Trump at the Buncombe County Republican Party office in Asheville, NC. AFP via Getty Images

The WRAL survey of 853 likely voters, which was conducted Oct. 23 through 26, finds that roughly 20% of Tar Heels say they’ve been “personally impacted” by Helene, and Trump leads by a point with that group.

Among those who were not affected, Harris has the 1-point lead.

The Elon poll of 800 registered voters, which YouGov conducted between Oct. 10 and 17, offers a somewhat more nuanced view of how the party divide drives perception.

Yard sign supporting US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris in front of the Buncombe County Democratic Party office
More than two-thirds of Democrats are sold on governmental response to Helene being “good” if not “very good,” while just 24% of Republicans and 40% of independent voters feel the same. AFP via Getty Images

Sixty-eight percent of Democrats are sold on governmental response to Helene being “good” if not “very good,” while 24% of Republicans and 40% of independent voters feel the same.

Fifty-seven percent of Republicans and 45% of independents said government agencies are doing at least a “poor” job; only 12% of Democrats agreed.

And 84% of Republicans trust Trump more with storm response, with 89% of Democrats hailing Harris as the superior option. 

Trump has expressed doubts about how motivated the storm response was in the hard-hit mountains of the state, saying “the Federal Government and the Democrat Governor of the State” were “going out of their way to not help people in Republican areas.”

Though Democrats and aligned media have strenuously argued otherwise, the polling data suggest the president’s points are taken seriously among his base.

The Elon poll indicates storm response should be a primary consideration, given 68% of respondents (including 55% of Republicans) believe storms are getting more severe, meaning Helene may be a harbinger of what’s to come for a region previously regarded as insulated from hurricane impacts.

And as in some other battlegrounds, Republicans have actually reversed trends of Democrats being more active in the early vote in previous cycles.

The GOP is up roughly 35,000 ballots among more than 3.1 million cast, a small lead that equates to a 1.1-point advantage over Democrats.

The polls say Republicans are more likely than Democrats to be Election Day voters. Elon’s has 52% of GOP registrants voting next Tuesday, compared with 44% of independents. WRAL’s poll shows 39% of likely voters from both parties have already voted, while 47% of Republicans and 45% of Democrats say they will vote.

With these surveys factored in, Trump is up 0.9 points in the RealClearPolling average of the state.