The NFL trade deadline was Tuesday and a handful of players found new homes before the second half of the regular season commences.
Two NFC contenders made all-in moves that could change their fortunes in a conference that looks wide open.
Let’s break down the moves and futures odds for each team.
Detroit Lions acquire DE Za’Darius Smith
According to FTN’s Aaron Schatz, only nine teams since 1979 have ranked in the top five in DVOA in all three phases after Week 8 of the season.
Six of those teams went on to win the Super Bowl.
The Lions are the ninth team.
Detroit is a clear upper-echelon contender. However, my lone prevailing concern was the team’s pass rush following the loss of Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner Aidan Hutchinson to a season-ending leg injury.
Per TruMedia, the Lions had a 53% pressure rate and five sacks over the season’s first six weeks. Since Hutchinson’s injury, the pressure rate has fallen to 21%.
Detroit’s front office recognized this deficiency and acquired edge rusher Za’Darius Smith from the Cleveland Browns for a Day 3 pick swap.
Smith isn’t close to a one-for-one replacement for Hutchinson. He has a 13.9% pressure rate this season, according to TruMedia, while Hutchinson had a stellar 25% rate. Hutchinson still ranks fourth in the NFL with 45 total pressures and he did that in just five games.
However, Smith can be a valuable part of the Lions’ pass rush.
There isn’t much value on the Lions to win the Super Bowl at +480 odds at BetMGM or to claim the NFC North at -250 odds.
Detroit has all of the pieces it needs to make a title run this year, and if their championship price lengthens following a loss at any point, I’d be interested in buying in.
Washington Commanders acquire CB Marshon Lattimore
First-year head coach Dan Quinn deserves tremendous credit for turning around the Commanders’ defense.
Washington ranked dead last in EPA per Play allowed for the first four weeks of the year. Since Week 5, they have ranked eighth, including third in EPA per pass allowed.
One significant change Quinn made was moving rookie Mike Sainristill to the boundary, replacing Emmanuel Forbes Jr., who ranks 199th out of 205 qualified corners in Pro Football Focus’s grades.
However, Sainristill is a more comfortable fit in the slot, and this move to acquire Marshon Lattimore allows him to operate inside more often.
Lattimore ranks 25th out of 117 qualified corners in PFF’s Coverage grades, and he hasn’t allowed a touchdown in single coverage since the 2021 season.
He can shadow opponents’ top wide receivers if Quinn deems it necessary based on the matchup, and he’ll shut down his side of the field more often than not.
The Commanders’ run defense is still shaky — they rank dead last in line yards allowed to running backs, per FTN.
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However, with a much-improved secondary paired with the fourth-ranked pass rush by ESPN’s win rate metrics, this defense is trending up to pair with an offense performing at an elite level with rookie Jayden Daniels.
Washington ranks 29th in strength of schedule faced by DVOA, and four of their final eight games will be against teams with winning records.
Two dates with the Eagles loom large for this team’s chances to win the NFC East (+110 odds).
The Commanders are priced at 22/1 to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel and I can’t fault you for taking a flier at that price.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.